Written by Weekly Prep Team · Editor · 12 Jul 2026
Everything lands on Tuesday. June CPI prints at 2:30 PM CET and Kevin Warsh begins his first testimony as Fed Chair ninety minutes later, at 4:00 PM CET, with the big banks having already reported before the open. Consensus looks for headline inflation to fall to about 3.9% year-on-year from 4.2%, with a negative monthly print on June's collapse in gasoline – but core is seen firm at +0.3% m/m. That is where the risk sits. Nine of the eighteen FOMC members now pencil in at least one rate hike this year, and roughly a third of the market prices one for 29 July, so a hot core is the single thing that breaks this rally – and it would land in the same hour the new Chair has to defend himself in front of Congress. He repeats the testimony to the Senate on Wednesday. Expect a quiet Monday, a violent Tuesday, and then compression into Friday's monthly options expiry. Crude carries its own risk: after Friday's close, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following a third round of US strikes – an escalation of a blockade that has been running since March rather than a brand-new one, but one the CL tape has to price at Sunday's open.
