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Weekly Prep Team · EditorNo CPI until 14 October, so the 10-year auction Wednesday, the 30-year Thursday and the Fed minutes carry the week, with the 10-year at 5.28%. Volatility should be moderate, concentrated around 7:00 PM CET on Wednesday and Thursday.
Continue reading →Core PCE Wednesday, ISM Thursday and payrolls Friday, with October priced at 75.8% and the 10-year at a 2007 high. Volatility should be high, concentrated at 2:30 PM CET on Wednesday and Friday.
Continue reading →No Fed and no PCE until 30 September, so the 10-year at 5.01% and three Treasury auctions carry the week, and October crude expires Tuesday. Volatility should be moderate, concentrated around the 7:00 PM CET auctions from Tuesday to Thursday.
Continue reading →he Fed decides on Wednesday with a hike priced near 90%, so the move is in the guidance, not the number. September futures expire Friday at the triple witching and December has been the front month since the 10th. Crude sits above $100 with the longest book this prep has recorded. Volatility should be moderate Monday and Tuesday and concentrated between Wednesday 8:00 PM CET and Friday’s expiry.
Continue reading →Four sessions, no Fed speakers, and CPI on Friday one working day before the FOMC. Payrolls at 162,000 put September hike odds near 65%. The index contracts roll to December on Thursday and both bases have already gone negative. Volatility should be thin Monday and Tuesday and concentrated in Thursday and Friday at 2:30 PM CET.
Continue reading →Payrolls on Friday, ISM either side of it, and a Fed chair who spent Friday telling the market that prices come first. September hike odds sit at 57%. Then it all runs into a three-day weekend with OPEC+ meeting on the Sunday. Volatility should be moderate into Tuesday, building through ISM and ADP, and heaviest at Friday 2:30 PM CET.
Continue reading →Core PCE, the GDP revision and Nvidia all land Wednesday. Jackson Hole opens Thursday with Warsh speaking Friday, and the Iran package is due Monday. That follows a week where the 30-year hit its highest since 2007 and the S&P lost 1.4%. Volatility should be quiet Monday and Tuesday and heavy from Wednesday 2:30 PM CET on.
Continue reading →No tier-one data until Wednesday evening’s Fed minutes, four of the largest US retailers reporting into a consumer that just posted its worst month in more than a year, and an Iran negotiating window that runs out before the contract reopens on Sunday. Volatility should be front-loaded into the crude reopen, then low into Wednesday 8:00 PM CET and event-driven from there.
Continue reading →Wednesday's July CPI and the $42 billion 10-year auction decide whether Friday's repricing holds, into a market at a record with the VIX at 14.90. Volatility should be compressed into Wednesday 2:30 PM CET and high from there.
Continue reading →The Fed held but three of its own officials voted to hike, and futures now price roughly an 81% chance of a September increase against zero for a cut, which makes this an inflation week more than a jobs week: Monday's ISM prices paid and Friday's average hourly earnings move the September call more per unit of surprise than the payroll headline does. Volatility should be moderate early and high into Friday's payrolls.
Continue reading →Everything stacks into forty-eight hours: the Fed decides Wednesday with a rate hike genuinely on the table, Microsoft and Meta report hours later, and Thursday brings advance GDP and core PCE in the same print before Apple and Amazon close the month. Volatility should be very high, peaking Wednesday evening and again on Thursday.
Continue reading →A light week for data but a heavy one for earnings, with Tesla and Alphabet on Wednesday and Intel on Thursday set to test an AI trade that just cracked, while the flash PMIs close the week and crude keeps spiking on the Iran conflict, all one week ahead of the Fed. Volatility should be high, centered on Wednesday night’s mega-cap tech results.
Continue reading →Everything lands on Tuesday. June CPI prints at 2:30 PM CET and Kevin Warsh begins his first testimony as Fed Chair ninety minutes later, at 4:00 PM CET, with the big banks having already reported before the open. Consensus looks for headline inflation to fall to about 3.9% year-on-year from 4.2%, with a negative monthly print on June's collapse in gasoline – but core is seen firm at +0.3% m/m. That is where the risk sits. Nine of the eighteen FOMC members now pencil in at least one rate hike this year, and roughly a third of the market prices one for 29 July, so a hot core is the single thing that breaks this rally – and it would land in the same hour the new Chair has to defend himself in front of Congress. He repeats the testimony to the Senate on Wednesday. Expect a quiet Monday, a violent Tuesday, and then compression into Friday's monthly options expiry. Crude carries its own risk: after Friday's close, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following a third round of US strikes – an escalation of a blockade that has been running since March rather than a brand-new one, but one the CL tape has to price at Sunday's open.
Continue reading →A quieter week after the jobs report, with two things to watch: Monday’s ISM Services and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, the first under new Chair Warsh, which the market will comb for how serious the rate-hike debate really is ahead of next week’s CPI. Volatility should be moderate, picking up around Wednesday’s minutes.
Continue reading →A holiday-shortened week built around one number: the June jobs report, pulled forward to Thursday since Friday is an early close for Independence Day, and landing right after a hot Core PCE that has the market pricing Fed hikes rather than cuts, with ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday as the warm-up. Volatility should be light early, then spike into Thursday’s payrolls.
Continue reading →The central-bank storm is behind us, leaving two events that matter: Thursday's Core PCE, the first inflation read since the Fed turned hawkish, and Friday's Russell reconstitution, with the Iran ceasefire holding but its follow-up talks already stalled. Volatility should be moderate, spiking on Thursday and into Friday's close.
Continue reading →A central-bank marathon ahead: the Fed (Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair), the BOJ, the SNB and the BOE all decide this week, US markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth, and a US–Iran agreement could be signed at any moment. Volatility should be very high.
Continue reading →It looks like it will be a news-heavy week, with the CPI (month-over-month and year-over-year), the PPI, and an ECB press conference; volatility is expected to be high.
Continue reading →t looks like it will be an interesting week, particularly in terms of how the Nasdaq might react after breaking the 30,000 mark, but also due to certain news items, such as the unemployment figures. Volatility is expected to remain high
Continue reading →It looks like it will be a fairly quiet and short week, with little economic news and Memorial Day, but with major earnings reports, such as Dell’s. Volatility should be moderate-high
Continue reading →With Kevin Warsh, the new Fed governor who takes office this week, along with Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday and the still highly complex geopolitical situation, volatility is expected to remain very high.
Continue reading →With Kevin Warsh, the new Fed governor who takes office this week, along with Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday and the still highly complex geopolitical situation, volatility is expected to remain very high.
Continue reading →This week was calmer than last week, but still packed with earnings reports from various companies, such as Palantir and Disney. The JOLTS report, Lagarde’s various remarks, and the ongoing conflict in Iran should nevertheless keep the week volatile
Continue reading →It’s going to be a busy week for earnings reports: Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. On top of that, there are FOMC and ECB meetings. The week is therefore likely to be very volatile.
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